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weekly updates from your association
2935 Breezewood Avenue, Suite 100 Fayetteville, NC 28303         910.826.0648       RSVP
Week of March 20
In This Issue In Every Issue
 Spectator Tickets Available

presented by

Friday, March 27
Tournament begins: 12:00 pm
3489 Wilmington Hwy
Fayetteville, NC 28306
(BeeGee and Bob Caviness' property)

Click here for all the details!
Linda Lee Allan Home Builders Scholarship
Created in honor of Linda Lee Allan by her devoted husband and family, loving friends, admiring colleagues and loyal customers in celebration of her many contributions to the home building community and the economic development of our region. It is the intent of the donors to make a college education accessible to children and grandchildren of current members of the Home Builders Association of Fayetteville, Inc.
Eligibility: This scholarship is available to students who meet all of these requirements:
  • Graduating high school senior from Cumberland County;
  • Parents or grandparents maintain an active/current membership in the Home Builders Association of Fayetteville, Inc.;
  • Planning to attend an accredited community college, college or university within six months of the application date.
Priorities: The Scholarship Selection Committee will consider the following priorities equally:
  • Financial need as demonstrated by the Student Aid Report, which is generated from the FAFSA,
  • Academic achievement, and
  • Citizenship
This is a non-renewable scholarship.
Deadline:  March 31, 2015; amount available:  $1,200

To apply, follow this link:  Go to the “How to Apply” page under the Scholarship section.


presented by

Tuesday, March 31
5:30 pm-7:00 pm


Attend this intimate networking opportunity, hosted by your Membership Committee. Builders are invited to attend and bring materials that will assist Associates in bidding on projects in the future. Associates are invited to attend to network with Builders and create new working relationships. This is a casual event that will be held at Tile with Style Plus. Light refreshments will be served.

Tile with Style Plus, Inc.
314 E. Russell Street
Fayetteville, NC 28301

Register to attend

Higher Wages:  When and Why?
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D., GraphsandLaughs, LLC

   Last year 3.2 million net new jobs were created, the best performance since 2000, and total employment is now several million higher than it was before the recession began.  In addition, the unemployment rate which is 5.7% continues to fall and should be at or near 5% by year end, a level economists consider full employment.  All of this good news, yet serious problems remain.  The labor force participation rate (LFRP) is at levels last seen in 1978, which makes the unemployment rate look better than it really is and after adjusting for inflation, wages have been declining for years.  What is going on?     
   The LFPR peaked at 67.3% in January 2000 and had had already fallen to 66% by the start of the Great Recession in January 2008, suggesting that other forces beyond the weak economy were already at work pushing it down.  That said, by the end of the Great Recession in June 2009, the LFPR was down just half-of-one-percentage-point to 65.5%.  Normally, it then would have started rising as the improving economy pulled unemployed workers back into the labor force from the ranks of the unemployed.  Instead, the LFPR went into free fall, hitting a low of 62.8% in October 2013 where it has remained since.  
   The decline in the LFPR from 66% to 62.8% not only represents a loss of four and a half million workers, but also has no historic precedent.  That said, much of the decline was inevitable.  About half the decline is due to demographics.  That is the number of Baby Boomers who are retiring is currently vastly outpacing the number of new entrants into the labor market.  Exacerbating this trend is that today’s youngsters are better educated and thus spend longer in school than earlier generations, further delaying their entrance into the world of work.
   Another quarter of the decline is due to the severity of the recent recession, and the remaining 25% decline is simply unexplained.  These might be people who are obtaining additional education, receiving disability insurance and may or may not work again, those who have become unemployable and those who simply gave up.  Whatever the cause, knowing how many people in this category return to work is critical to understanding what lies ahead.   
    Some have returned, some will return and some will never return.  However, no matter what happens to those persons, close to 10,000 Baby Boomers retire every day.  As a result, the fact that the LFRP has not fallen since October 2013 suggests these discouraged workers are returning.  Were that not the case, the LFRP would have continued falling.  So flat really is the new up!
   Looking to the future, the greater the number of these discouraged workers who return to the labor force, the slower the decline in the unemployment rate will be, the higher the LFRP will be but perhaps most importantly, the slower wage growth will be.  And that’s the kicker.  By contrast, if discouraged workers stop returning to the labor force, the unemployment rate will fall faster and wages will start rising more quickly but it would also mean that millions of previously employed persons have given up on work and that is very bad. 
   Ideally, discouraged workers will continue returning and wages will remain flat for a while longer but will eventually start rising.  Unfortunately, my guess is that relatively few discouraged workers who have not yet returned will.  As a result, expect wage growth to start rising sooner, probably by year end.      

Don't Miss Your Chance for His Fresh Outlook
As building suppliers and manufacturers, you want expert advice to help guide your decisions. And the NAHB Spring Construction Forecast Webinar has one of the best in the business.
From secondary mortgage markets to realtors to the largest provider of advanced pr
operty and ownership information, analytics and services, CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Sam Khater is a thought leader with his finger on the pulse of every facet of residential housing economics.
Hear his new voice and perspective, and interact with him, as we explain the latest housing economic data in this premier program. We'll also discuss and answer your questions on topics like:
  • Housing's potential and most likely path for 2015 and 2016
  • Recovery hurdles like labor shortages and tight credit
  • Tailwinds pushing housing such as demographics and pent-up demand
  • Future Federal Reserve actions and their impacts
In addition to the big-picture overview, Robert Denk, NAHB's Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis, gives a state-by-state analysis of areas that affect your business such as:
  • Housing prices
  • Employment
  • Housing starts
  • And more!
There is a fee of $29.95 for NAHB members to register for this webinar. Register now!

The HBA of Fayetteville will broadcast this Webinar FREE at the HBAF office for members. Register to attend at the HBAF office on April 22, 2 pm-4 pm.

Up Coming

March 25
Golf Committee 
10:30 am
HBAF office

March 27
Cornhole Tournament
11:00 am-Player Check-in
12:00 pm-Event Begins
3489 Wilmington Hwy
Fayetteville, NC 28306
(BeeGee and Bob Caviness' property)
More Information

March 31
Applications for the Linda Lee Allan Scholarship Due

March 31
Builders, Bids & Beers
5:30 pm-7:00 pm 
Tile with Style Plus
314 E. Russell Street
Fayetteville, NC 28301

April 14
Membership Committee 
11:30 am
HBAF office

April 16
Board of Directors
9 am
HBAF office

April 22
NAHB Spring Construction Forecast
HBAF office
2:00 pm-4:00 pm

Save the Date: June 16-17
NCHBA Legislative Conference
Raleigh, NC

Johnston County HBA Parade of Homes Judges Needed
Sign up today to judge the 2015 Johnston County Parade of Homes!
What to expect:
  • Breakfast the morning of judging.
  • Chauffeured around the county to the homes your judging.
  • Lunch at Flowers Plantation’s Dr. Watson Inn
  • Appreciation gift when complete
  • This is the 21st Anniversary for the JCPOH
  • This is a scattered site Parade of Homes
  • There are 30 entries
  • Single Family and Estate Homes
Membership Recruitment Raffle

Start Recruiting Today!

Raffle Prizes

$600  *  $300  *  $100

Construction Statistics

Local Stats: February 2015 *new

Local Stats Residential Trend: 2008-2015 *new

Absorption Report: January 2015

Commercial Building Permit Index: December 2014 

The Market Edge Residential Building Permit Trend: December 2014

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The Social Society: The Nuts and Bolts of Getting Started in Social Media
Wednesday, March 25, 2-3 p.m.
Sales and Marketing series

Social media is the new Yellow Pages. If you aren't into it but you want to be, this interactive course will walk you through the basics of setting up a Facebook business page, a Houzz account and a Twitter account. We will also discuss what to post, when to post and other free and useful tips to navigate the social media world.

HBA of Fayetteville
910-826-0649 fax

Natalie Fryer, Executive Officer
Pamela Grierson, Communications Manager

NAHB Member Discounts
Dues Payments & Lobbying Expense 2015 Disclosure
Dues payments to the Home Builders Association of Fayetteville are not deductible as charitable contributions for federal income tax purposes. However, dues payments may be deductible as an ordinary and necessary business expense, subject to exclusion for lobbying activity. Because a portion of your dues is used for lobbying by NAHB, NCHBA and HBAF, 10% of the total dues, or $ 48.22 is not deductible for income tax purposes for builder and associate members. For affiliate members, 2% of the total dues, or $2.35 is not deductible for income tax purposes. Membership Dues are non-refundable.
Copyright © 2015 HBA of Fayetteville, All rights reserved.

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