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weekly updates from your association
2935 Breezewood Avenue, Suite 100 Fayetteville, NC 28303         910.826.0648        admin@fayhba.org       RSVP
Week of April 17
In This Issue In Every Issue
The HBA of Fayetteville will broadcast this Webinar FREE at the HBAF office for members. Register to attend at the HBAF office on April 22, 2 pm-4 pm.

 

 
As building suppliers and manufacturers, you want expert advice to help guide your decisions. And the NAHB Spring Construction Forecast Webinar has one of the best in the business.
From secondary mortgage markets to realtors to the largest provider of advanced pr
operty and ownership information, analytics and services, CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Sam Khater is a thought leader with his finger on the pulse of every facet of residential housing economics.
Hear his new voice and perspective, and interact with him, as we explain the latest housing economic data in this premier program. We'll also discuss and answer your questions on topics like:
  • Housing's potential and most likely path for 2015 and 2016
  • Recovery hurdles like labor shortages and tight credit
  • Tailwinds pushing housing such as demographics and pent-up demand
  • Future Federal Reserve actions and their impacts
In addition to the big-picture overview, Robert Denk, NAHB's Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis, gives a state-by-state analysis of areas that affect your business such as:
  • Housing prices
  • Employment
  • Housing starts
  • And more!
There is a fee of $29.95 for NAHB members to register for this webinar. Register now
Member Mixer
2015 Housing Market Forecast
   
 Thursday, April 23
Highland Country Club

New Member Reception 11:00 am
Mixer & Lunch  11:30 am
Program   12:00 pm

 
Dale Akins with Market Edge will present the program to include: regional building, permit trends, employment analysis, builder rankings, subdivision rankings and a housing forecast for 2015.
 
Register to attend by April 20:
Member Mixer
New Member Reception
 
*HBAF members may attend Member Mixers at no cost,
all guests are $25 each.
EPA EXTENDS RENOVATOR  
RE-CERTIFICATION DEADLINES
   The Environmental Protection Agency has issued a final rule extending the certifications of thousands of individual renovators under the Lead: Renovation Repair and Painting Program (LRRP). This is good news for more than 200,000 certified renovators who would otherwise have been shut out of the opportunity to take advantage of online-only training included in revisions proposed by the EPA to the refresher training requirement.

   NAHB Remodelers called for this extension during its November meeting with OMB while the rule was under review, and has repeatedly highlighted the implications and recommended actions to the EPA and the White House.
Under the final rule:

  • Individual renovators who received certification on or before March 31, 2010, now have until March 31, 2016, to get recertified.
  • Individual renovators who received certification between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2011, will have one year added to their five-year certification.
  • Subsequent certifications for renovators receiving the extension will be five years.

Learn more in NAHBNow.

ARE YOU GETTING YOUR REBATES!

Find out on April 20 or April 27
Register to attend a free webinar that explains the NCHBA Rebate Program
April 20 at 2:00 pm
April 27 at 2:30 pm

 
Free Member Benefit that Puts Cash In Your Pocket
 
No one likes to leave money on the table. So, what would you think if you could get a rebate for your loyalty to many of the nation’s leading housing industry product suppliers? Well, now you can!
 
The Member Rebate Program is a free member benefit of the North Carolina Home Builders Association that is available to all active Builder and Remodeler Members.
 
The Manufacturers offer the same rebates as the "Top 10 Builders" receive regardless of your volume.
 

NCHBA Legislative Update

 While many of the legislators have taken the week off, staff at the General Assembly has not.  A number of bills were filed in the House this week with legislators out of town. The number of bill introductions are expected to rise throughout next week with the introduction dateline set for April 14. Currently, there have been over 600 bills filed in the House chamber.  Senate members introduced 711 bills for the session.  At this time, NCHBA will track nearly 15% of all introduced bills. However, any piece of legislation has the ability to transform into a proposed committee substitute (PCS) that could have lasting meaning on the housing industry.

Bills on the Move 

  • SB25/HB 36 (Zoning/Design & Aesthetic Controls):   Senate bill is currently in the Senate Rules Committee, House companion bill is currently in House Local Government 
  • HB 136/SB 321 (Exempt Builders' Inventory): House bill sits in House Finance; Senate version in Senate Rules
  • HB 201 (Zoning Changes/Citizen Input) and SB 300 (Zoning Changes/Majority Rule): Passed the House; currently in Senate Rules Committee
  • HB 255/SB 324 (Building Code Regulatory Reform): The House has moved the legislation through the Regulatory Reform Committee, will be heard in House Finance on Tuesday April 14.

Representative Rob Bryan will introduced legislation that deals with Bonding/Letters of Credit.  Among the its current provisions, a section deals with the abuse by some local governments with respect to bonding and letters of credit for subdivisions roads and other improvements and the sometimes excessive periods for which such bonds are required to be held. Another provision seeks to regulate the practice of some local governments to put "permit holds" on existing lots as leverage to require improvements in a future phase of the development.  Bill has been sent to bill drafting and will be introduced before the bill filing deadline on April 14.

2% is the new 3%
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D., GraphsandLaughs, LLC
   Last year, GDP growth was a mediocre 2.4%.  While it was the best growth since 2010 when GDP growth was a “sparkling” 2.5%, it means yet another year, the ninth in a row, of sub 3% GDP growth.  There has never been a run of such weak GDP growth since record keeping began in 1930.  Yes, there were terrible periods but they were all blessedly brief, never lasting more than two or three years and they always occurred during recessions.  In our case, the recession ended in June 2009.  What is going on?  The fact is that our weak GDP growth is not surprising at all, let me explain. 
   GDP growth is composed of two things, growth in the labor force and growth in labor productivity.  GDP rises when more people work, and better yet, when they work more productively.  Productivity growth is particularly important because it boosts living standards. 
   GDP growth was very good following WWII because annual labor force growth grew dramatically from 0.5% in 1950 to almost 2.5% in 1975.  As a result, the prime-aged working population, those between the ages of 25 and 54, grew from 60 million to almost 80 million in 25 short years.  While population growth then began to decline, it remained above 1% through 2003.  As a result, the prime-aged population continued growing, hitting 122 million in 2003.  As a matter of fact, the labor force grew much faster than the population during the 1970s and 1980s due to the huge influx of women into the labor force.  As a result, the prime-aged working population grew by over 3% per year during the 1980s. 
   Since 2003, population growth has slowed further and is now barely 0.7%.  Moreover, the Boomers have begun retiring in large numbers and the number of working men and women has, for a number of reasons, continued to slowly decline.  As a result, the size of the prime-aged working population has essentially flat-lined since 2003.  As a matter of fact, it peaked in 2007.   If the size of the prime-aged working population is flat, it’s hard to experience rapid GDP growth even if labor productivity growth is good.    
   Regrettably, labor productivity growth has not been particularly good of late.  But first some history:  from 1948 through 1973 labor productivity grew at an amazing average annual rate of 2.8%.  Add to that rapid labor force growth, and it’s no wonder GDP growth averaged 4.1% per year.  Between 1974 and 1990, labor productivity grew by an anemic 1.4% percent but given good population growth, GDP growth was a solid 3.0% per year.  From 1991 through 2007, productivity perked up to a very respectable 2.4%, and despite weak population growth, GDP still averaged 3% per year. 
   Since the start of the Great Recession, however, we have experienced anemic labor productivity growth of, again, 1.4% per year and a trivial increase in the working population.  As a result, GDP growth has averaged a dismal 1.2% per year.  Luckily the prime-aged working population is again starting to rise, which is good.  The million dollar question is “How will labor productivity growth perform?”  Will it be a replay of the boom years of 1974 through 1990, the crummy years since 2007, or more likely something in between?   While nobody knows for sure, GDP growth should drift upwards as demographics become more favorable and labor productivity hopefully rises.                  
   Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at Elliot@graphsandlaughs.net.  His daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.

 
 

Up Coming

April 17
Cornhole Tournament
HBAF Office Closed

April 21
Casino Night Committee 
9 am
HBAF office

April 22
Webinar: NAHB Spring Construction Forecast
2:00 pm-4:00 pm
HBAF office
Register 

April 23
New Member Reception
11:30 am
Highland Country Club
Register to attend

Member Mixer: 2015 Housing Market Forecast
11:00 am
Highland Country Club
Register to attend

May 6 
Golf Committee 
10:30 am
HBAF office

May 19
Membership Committee 
11:30 am
HBAF office

May 21
Board of Directors
9 am
HBAF office

Save the Date: June 16-17
NCHBA Legislative Conference
Raleigh, NC

Membership Recruitment Raffle


Start Recruiting Today!

Raffle Prizes

$600  *  $300  *  $100
 
 


Construction Statistics

Local Stats: March 2015

Local Stats Residential Trend: 2008-2015

Absorption Report: February 2015

Commercial Building Permit Index: December 2014 

The Market Edge Residential Building Permit Trend: December 2014



NAHB NEWS
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The Remodeler's Guide to Happy Customers: Managing Emotional Home Owners
Wednesday, May 6, 2-3 p.m.
Business Improvement series

Builders and remodelers aren't just selling a project; they are selling the entire experience. Managing emotional home owners means managing expectations and guiding them through every step of the process, in addition to managing the project itself.

NAHB OFFERS DISCOUNTED WIRELESS PROGRAM: AT&T, VERIZON, SPRINT & T-MOBILE

NAHB is pleased to announce the launch of our newest member benefit program with eMemberBenefits. They provide discounted wireless service offerings from Verizon, Sprint, AT&T and T-Mobile. This unique program offers a wide range of benefits to members including: discounts averaging 35% for members, free mobile to any mobile calling, free mobile device management through an online portal, dedicated 24/7/365 help desk support and much more.*

Home builders today are relying on mobile technology for more than just phone calls. With the introduction of new technology, productivity has increased significantly. The eMemberBenefits wireless program for members helps to deliver solutions that are both powerful and simplified so that your enterprise gets the most from current available technologies at the very best prices.

Members will receive a no cost, no obligation detailed assessment of their existing wireless telecom expenses, and be provided with a free side by side comparison of discounts available for their existing service, along with comparable options from other carriers, often with even greater discounts. Once a member selects an option, they will receive comprehensive management of the implementation process, and a dedicated representative to act as the focal point for customer service and ongoing member support.

To learn more, please visit www.eMemberBenefits.com/nahb or call 866-430-NAHB (6242) to speak directly with a member specialist.

* All carriers require a 5 line minimum for business accounts (all phones, tablets, mobile hot spots and other cellular internet connected devices count towards this minimum

 
HBA of Fayetteville
910-826-0648
910-826-0649 fax
www.fayhba.org
admin@fayhba.org

Natalie Fryer, Executive Officer
Pamela Grierson, Communications Manager

NAHB Member Discounts
www.nahb.org/ma
Dues Payments & Lobbying Expense 2015 Disclosure
Dues payments to the Home Builders Association of Fayetteville are not deductible as charitable contributions for federal income tax purposes. However, dues payments may be deductible as an ordinary and necessary business expense, subject to exclusion for lobbying activity. Because a portion of your dues is used for lobbying by NAHB, NCHBA and HBAF, 10% of the total dues, or $ 48.22 is not deductible for income tax purposes for builder and associate members. For affiliate members, 2% of the total dues, or $2.35 is not deductible for income tax purposes. Membership Dues are non-refundable.
Copyright © 2015 HBA of Fayetteville, All rights reserved.


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