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weekly updates from your association
2935 Breezewood Avenue, Suite 100 Fayetteville, NC 28303         910.826.0648        admin@fayhba.org       RSVP
Week of January 16
In This Issue In Every Issue
HBA of Fayetteville Member Mixer
Start Fresh. Buy New. Make Money.


Thursday, January 29
Mixer 11:30 am
Lunch & Program 12:00 pm

Highland Country Club
 
Come learn about our exciting new campaign “Start Fresh, Buy New” that will help us all sell more New Homes.  As part of this campaign Tammie Smoot will introduce Builders Digital Experience (BDX), leading provider of digital marketing solutions for builders, whom has recently partnered with the HBA of Fayetteville.  Through this partnership BDX has created a listings website for home buyers to search for new homes from HBAF builder members in the Fayetteville area and help builders expand their online marketing presence at no cost.
 
Register to attend by January 25
Register to attend

Economic Forecast for 2015: Sunny Days with Occasional Cloudy Periods
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D.,
 
   Looking at 2015, the domestic economic landscape finally looks solid if unspectacular.  Unemployment rates should keep falling, house prices are likely to rise by 5%, and despite poor global economic conditions, the American economy will strengthen.  Moreover, despite a deep partisan divide in Washington, the government will not close down nor will it fail to pay its bills.  In addition, the ongoing improvement in household balance sheets, the improving fiscal health of state and local governments, and the likely rise in capital expenditures by firms, albeit not very large, all but insures better economic growth.  The only serious domestic problems are weak wage growth and inflation that is a bit low. 
   With this in mind, I expect full-year 2015 GDP to come in at no less than 2.85%, a healthy rise from the expected 2.4% GDP growth experienced in 2014, and the strongest since 2005.  As for new housing starts, they should rise by about 14%, with total starts coming in at 1.14 million.  For all of 2015, single-family starts should total 750,000 up from 640,000, while multifamily starts should hit 390,000, up from 350,000.  Housing sales should rise by about 5% and end the year at 5.6 million.  Housing inventories should rise by about 200,000 units, to 5.5 months of inventory up from 5.0 months now. 
   Given the improving labor market, expect net new monthly job growth to average roughly 220,000/month, which while down from 240,000/month in 2014, is excellent given the shrinking size of the working age population.  As a result, the unemployment rate should steadily fall from 5.8% today to 5.2% by year end and possibly lower, depending upon the behavior of the labor force participation rate (LFPR).  If the LFPR rises, and that would be a good thing, unemployment may end at 5.3%, but if the LFPR falls, an unemployment rate of 5% would not be out of the question.         
   Inflation will remain completely benign, with overall inflation possibly drifting lower, while core inflation (which excludes food and energy) shows modest upward drift.  The combination of anemic growth in Europe and Japan and declining oil, gas and commodity prices will keep the CPI essentially where it is now, slightly below 2%.  Add to this declining import prices due to the rising US dollar and slow wage growth,  and core personal consumption expenditure inflation, the Feds preferred inflation measure, will not exceed 1.7%, well below their 2% target.  This will give the Federal Reserve ample time to slowly raise the federal funds rate from where it is now, between 0% and 0.25%, to 1% by year end, with the first rate rise probably occurring in June.  The thing to keep in mind is that this rate rise, the first in a decade, is likely to be accompanied by some stock and bond market volatility.                 
   As a result of faster GDP growth in 2015, 10-year Treasuries will end the year at 2.7% and 30-year mortgage rates will probably hover around 4.5% as the yield curve flattens due to faster rising short-term rates.  But a combination of slightly easing credit market conditions and increasing consumer spending due to increased employment and rising wages will keep the economy and the housing market on track despite mildly rising interest rates.  Finally, I put the chances of a recession in 2015 at 5%.  So look forward to steady economic activity in 2015 and fear not rising interest rates.   

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at Elliot@graphsandlaughs.net.  His daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.

Up Coming

January 19
HBAF office closed

January 20-22
International Builders Show
Las Vegas

January 29
New Member Reception
Highland Country Club
11:00 am
Register to attend

Member Mixer: Start Fresh. Buy New
Highland Country Club 
11:30 am
Register to attend

February 4
NCHBA Region V Meeting
Moore County Home Builders Association
12:00 pm
10022 North Carolina 211
Aberdeen, NC 28315
RSVP to Danny Adams
 

BUILDERS, BIDS & BEERS
Save the Date
February 24

presented by
Fayetteville Area Habitat for Humanity is requesting bids.
Please visit their website.


Construction Statistics

Local Stats: December 2014

Local Stats Residential Trend: 2008-2014

Absorption Report: November 2014

Commercial Building Permit Index: September 2014  

The Market Edge Residential Building Permit Trend: September 2014  



NAHB NEWS
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Significant Changes to the 2015 International Codes
Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2-3 p.m.
Policy and Finance series

New homes are required by law to comply with state and local building codes and the standards referenced in those codes. Most jurisdictions that enforce a building code have adopted one or more of the family of International Codes (I-Codes) developed by the International Code Council (ICC). This webinar highlights significant changes to the 2015 editions of the I-Codes, particularly the International Residential Code (IRC) and International Building Code (IBC).

HBA of Fayetteville
910-826-0648
910-826-0649 fax
www.fayhba.org
admin@fayhba.org

Natalie Fryer, Executive Officer
Pamela Grierson, Communications Manager

NAHB Member Discounts
www.nahb.org/ma
Dues Payments & Lobbying Expense 2015 Disclosure
Dues payments to the Home Builders Association of Fayetteville are not deductible as charitable contributions for federal income tax purposes. However, dues payments may be deductible as an ordinary and necessary business expense, subject to exclusion for lobbying activity. Because a portion of your dues is used for lobbying by NAHB, NCHBA and HBAF, 10% of the total dues, or $ 48.22 is not deductible for income tax purposes for builder and associate members. For affiliate members, 2% of the total dues, or $2.35 is not deductible for income tax purposes. Membership Dues are non-refundable.
Copyright © 2015 HBA of Fayetteville, All rights reserved.


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