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Ukentlig oppdatering fra den lange veien til Det hvite hus. Av politiske junkies, for politiske junkies.
Vi skriver snart 2015, men vi har for lengst rettet blikket mot presidentvalget i 2016. I året som kommer starter vi derfor hver uke med en oppdatering fra 2016-sirkuset. Målinger, nyheter, spekulasjoner og oppdateringer fra AmerikanskPolitikk.no sin #2016tracker.

Du mottar "Sirkuset" fordi du abonnerer på "Morgenkaffen". Jeg håper du også setter pris på dette nyhetsbrevet en gang i uken. Hvis du ikke gjør det, er det bare å avslutte abonnementet på "Sirkuset" nederst i e-posten.

God jul og godt nyttår! 

Are Tågvold Flaten
redaktør av AmerikanskPolitikk.no
BUSH TAR FØRINGEN. "The moment Jeb Bush announced Tuesday he would 'actively explore' a 2016 presidential run, he began to stomp on the ideological, geographic and financial bases of his potential rivals. … GOP strategists and fundraisers say a … Bush candidacy would cut into" Chris Christie's "base of establishment Republican support, fracture the donor community in Texas" that Rick Perry "has hoped would serve as a presidential springboard, and lock up key donors and financiers in Florida, where" Marco Rubio "has been considering a run of his own." (National Journal)
HILLARYS VALGKAMPMANAGER? “The name that comes up most frequently in Democratic circles is Robby Mook, a former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee staffer who ran Terry McAuliffe's 2013 gubernatorial campaign in Virginia. He has been helping Clinton out with "special projects," according to Bloomberg, and advised her during the midterms. Stephanie Schriock, the president of EMILY's List who managed and won tough campaigns for Democratic Sens. Jon Tester and Al Franken, is also mentioned as a contender.” (National Journal)
WARREN? “If Warren or her team had been dead set against a draft from a big movement player like MoveOn, there was an easy way to make that clear. … It would have stopped it dead.” (BuzzFeed)
FIORINA. “Carly Fiorina is laying the groundwork for what one ally says is an "imminent" presidential campaign—one that could launch as early as next month. … She has authorized members of her inner circle to seek out and interview candidates for two key positions on her presidential campaign: political director and communications director. ... "If Hillary Clinton's the nominee, Republicans need a woman front and center—probably on the ticket,’” says Jason Cabel Roe, a Republican consultant in California. (National Journal)
RUBIO vs. PAUL, CUBA-EDITION. Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky): "I think probably opening up Cuba is a good idea." Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida): "Well, like many people, he has no idea what he's talking about.” ...“If Rand Paul wants to align himself and become a supporter of the Obama foreign policy … he has a right to do that.” 
FLORIDA. Nesten 80 % av politiske insidere i Florida sier at “Rubio would be unable to raise enough money to mount a competitive campaign if Jeb Bush was also running." (Tampa Bay Times)
TIL ISRAEL. Indiana-guvernør Mike Pence (R) skal feire jul i Israel. 
TIL IOWA. Avtroppende Texas-guvernør Rick Perry (R) tar turen til Steve King og Citizens Uniteds "Iowa Freedom Summit" i Des Moines, Iowa, 24. januar. Andre potensielle 2016-kandidater som tar turen: Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, og Rick Santorum. Og Sarah Palin.
RELIGIØSE LEDERE. Indiana-guvernør Bobby Jindal (R) tar turen tilbake til Iowa 6. januar. "He's holding closed-door meetings with religious leaders in Cedar Rapids and Des Moines on Jan. 6."
99 COUNTIES. Neurokirurgen og den konservative helten Ben Carson (R) blir en mann å regne med i Iowa... “In Iowa … a local chairman or chairwoman has been recruited in all 99 counties, something no other potential candidate can claim.” (The New York Times)
PÅ TELEFONEN. New Jersey-guvernør Chris Christie (R) tilbringer kveldene på telefonen “with some of the brightest foreign policy minds in the Republican Party, getting ready to run for president … the previously undisclosed prep sessions are another indication that Christie's political ambitions are undeterred by the George Washington Bridge scandal and the all-but-formal entry” of Jeb Bush. (AP)
 

#2016tracker

Oppdatert 23. desember 2014
Demokratene, topp 3:
  1. Hillary Clinton (61,7 %)
  2. Elizabeth Warren (11,8 %)
  3. Joe Biden (8,4 %)
Republikanerne, topp 3:
  1. Jeb Bush (13,8 %)
  2. Chris Christie (10,7 %)
  3. Rand Paul (9,7 %)
Se resultatene i ukas #2016tracker på AmerikanskPolitikk.no
2016-snittet bygger på gjennomsnittene av de nasjonale 2016-målingene til RealClearPolitics og Pollster, samt gjennomsnittene av 2016-målingene i Iowa og New Hampshire — de to delstatene som er først ut i begge partiers nominasjonskamp i januar 2016. Modellen baserer seg i tillegg på de ulike kandidatenes odds for å vinne nominasjonen, regnet om til vinnersjanse.
Presidentvalget2016
Presidentvalget2016
@DetHviteHus2016
@DetHviteHus2016
2016-bloggen
2016-bloggen
Podkast
Podkast
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