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SQM Research Residential Newsletter - 
Tuesday 27 October 2020
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Black Dragon's
Words for the Week

“Never, ever give up. There will be times in your life you'll want to quit, you'll want to go home, you'll want to go home perhaps to that wonderful mother that's sitting back there watching you and say, 'Mom, I can't do it. I can't do it.' Just never quit. Go back home and tell mom, dad, ‘I can do it, I can do it. I will do it.’ You're going to be successful.”
 
“Relish the opportunity to be an outsider. Embrace that label. Being an outsider is fine, embrace the label. Because it's the outsiders who change the world and who make a real and lasting difference.”

Donald Trump
US President

Real Estate Realities 

Chief Economist update: US election result might benefit property in Australia

Overseas political unrest often leads to a jump in real estate search activity from that country.

The most prominent examples have been the announcement of Brexit in June 2016 leading to a jump in search from the UK; the introduction of the Fugitive Offenders amendment bill in mid-March 2019 leading to more activity out of Hong Kong; and most recently, the Trump/Biden election (and likely high COVID-19 infections) leading to a lot more search out of the US.

Right now, US searches for Australian property is the highest of anywhere overseas and has jumped 32% compared to the same time last year.

The state we are seeing the biggest pickup in search into Australia is from New York where activity has more than doubled. This is perhaps not surprising.

New York is a Democrat state, has been hit particularly hard by COVID-19 and contains quite a lot of Australian expats.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma has seen the biggest drop – as a Republican stronghold, they are perhaps feeling quite different about living in the US compared to the average New Yorker.

Hawaii is an interesting one. According to realtor.com, more Australians search for property in Hawaii than Americans – perhaps driven by cheap flights to Hawaii and our collective property obsession that comes through even when we holiday.

Meanwhile, Hawaiians aren’t particularly interested in Australia and search from Hawaii has dropped off further during COVID-19.

 

May the horse be with you - Louis' Melbourne Cup Tip: 
1.   Anthony Van Dyck
2.   Verry Elleegant
3.   Tiger Moth

 

PROPERTY LISTINGS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN OCTOBER
Melbourne posts a surge in New Listings
Capital City Average Asking Prices Increasing

by Louis Christopher

Figures released today by SQM Research reveal national residential property listings significantly increased in October by 6.5% from 289,566 listings in September 2020 to 308,413.  Compared to 12 months ago, listings were down by 3.3%.

All capital cities recorded increases in property listings over the month with Melbourne recording a huge increase of 26.7% - 9,286 more properties listed than September.  Both Sydney and Canberra also posted large increases of 8.4% each and Hobart posted 8.2% increase.

Brisbane recorded a 4.6% increase, Adelaide 4.5% and Perth 4.2%.  Darwin recorded the smallest increase of 0.6%.  

National year-on-year listings reveal a decrease of 3.3% with significant decreases in Darwin (24.5%) and Hobart (12.1%).  Melbourne however, recorded a large increase of 22.0% and Sydney a 13.6% increase.  All other capital cities recorded declines over the 12 months.


Stock on Market Table:


New Listings (30 days)

Nationally, new listings (30 days) increased by a significant 27.45% over the course of October with 17,154 more properties on the market.  Melbourne posted a huge increase in new listings of 322.6%.  Hobart posted a 44.0% increase, Canberra a 15.6% increase and Sydney a 12.7% increase in new listings.

It seems like we are moving back to the usual spring selling season with all capital city listings rising in October. Melbourne in particular, has bounced back in a big way after the relaxing of Stage 4 restrictions.  In fact, we are expecting another big rise in listings during the month of November for Melbourne.


Asking Prices

Capital City Average asking prices increased 1.8% for houses and 0.1% units over the month to 3rd November.  Average unit asking prices are now $563,900 and houses $989,100.  

Compared to a year ago, the capital city asking prices posted an increase of 5.2% for houses but declined by 1.0% for units.
 
Over the month, most capital cities recorded marginal asking price increases in houses and units. Sydney continues to record a decline in unit asking prices of 0.5% but recorded an increase of 0.7% for houses. Perth and Hobart also recorded declines in unit prices of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.  Hobart however, posted the largest gain in house prices of 2.5%.

Melbourne, after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, is rebounding posting increases in both house asking prices of 0.4% and a 1.0% increase in units. 

Canberra house asking prices remained stable and unit asking prices increased by 1.7%.

Year on year, most capital cities recorded increases in house and unit asking prices with a significant increase of 17.8% in Hobart’s unit asking price and 10.1% in house asking prices.   
 
Sydney’s unit prices declined 4.1% over the 12 months but house prices increased 5.3%.




AUCTION RESULTS for week ending 1 November 2020

Full individual auction results can be found on our website: 



AUCTION LISTINGS* for week ending 8 November 2020


CITY

Saturday

Rest of Week

 

STATE

Saturday

Rest of Week

Link

Sydney 790 126   All NSW 896 205 Auctions in NSW
Melbourne^ 493 165   All VIC 526 173 Auctions in VIC 
Brisbane 79 27   All QLD 131 71 Auctions in QLD 
Perth 8 3   All WA 14 6 Auctions in WA 
Adelaide 54 24   All SA 54 28 Auctions in SA 
Canberra 72 19   All ACT 72 19 Auctions in ACT 
Darwin 0 4   All NT 0 4 Auctions in NT 
Hobart 0 0   All TAS 2 1 Auctions in TAS

* The above counts of auctions represent most recent known auction dates for the coming week.  ^As at 18-Oct-20, Melbourne outdoor auctions will be allowed (max. 10 people).
 

DISTRESSED PROPERTY OF THE WEEK

 307 Trower Road, Nakara, NT 0810
 
A 3-bedroom house in the northern Darwin suburb of Nakara is currently listed for $449,500 after initialling going to auction in September 2020.  Currently, houses in this postcode have a selling range from $490 to $630k.  This home last sold for $140,500 in January 2003.
 
Sitting on a large 817 sqm block with 3-bedrooms each with split A/C and built-in robes; this home also has a spacious open plan living area; kitchen; laundry; and bathroom with a separate toilet.  This is a functional home that can be further improved with little effort.
 
Outside, the house is set back from the street with a formal driveway leading to a carport and potential parking for a boat and 3 more cars.  The house also has easy care gardens and a patio.
 
The house is close to all amenities including Casuarina Shopping Centre, Dripstone High School, Charles Darwin University, Royal Darwin Hospital, parks and bus services, and the ocean and boat ramps only 5 minutes away.
 

Darwin has recorded good growth in asking prices in the past quarter and this postcode has also shown similar Asking price growth for houses of 1.1% over the quarter and 5.5% over the month.  Unit prices have also increased 1.8% over the month and 2.4% over the quarter.
 
This postcodes’
Asking rents for houses had increased by 4.8% over the quarter, however over the last month there has been a 4.9% decline.  Unit rents however continue to surge with a 5.9% increase over the month.  An implied gross rental yield of 4.4% can be achieved for houses and 5.7% for units.  Currently, there are 72 rental listings in this postcode, declining from 235 in February 2020.
 
This postcode has also been a standout with low a
vacancy rate of 0.6% in September, after declining from 2.9% in January 2020.
 
This home would suit growing families looking for a lifestyle opportunity in a beachside suburb.


You can monitor this market with SQM Research’s free property data. Also consider the SQM Property Explorer product for more in-depth data and property price estimator.


SQM RATINGS NEWSLETTER

Did you know that SQM Research doesn’t only provide residential property data, we also provide research on all asset classes.  We have data and analytics on over 10,000 funds in Australia.  To find out more and to subscribe to our Fund Data tool click here.

If you would like to subscribe to our Ratings Newsletter, click here.  The newsletter provides regular updates on all funds including ratings changes and media releases, and valuable Insights into the point of view of our analysts on a variety of ratings research related topics.  And it’s completely free!
 

SQM RESEARCH HOUSING INDEXES
 
SQM Research Weekly Asking Prices Index
Week ending: 3 Nov 2020 Asking Price    Chg on
prev wk
  Rolling month
% chg
  12 month
% chg
Sydney  All Houses   1,354.3 9.7  0.7%  5.3% 
All Units 673.1 -0.3  -0.5%  -4.1% 
Melbourne  All Houses 1,031.4 -1.5  0.4%  6.9% 
All Units 569.6 1.4  1.0%  3.4% 
Brisbane  All Houses 658.0 2.3  1.6%  4.1% 
All Units 377.8 0.6  0.3%  1.6% 
Perth  All Houses 677.7 2.9  1.6%  3.5% 
All Units 380.2 -0.8  -0.3%  0.8% 
Adelaide  All Houses 527.3 2.1  0.2%  1.7% 
All Units 311.6 0.6  0.6%  3.2% 
Canberra  All Houses 809.7 2.4  0.0%  -0.2% 
All Units 465.7 -2.8  1.7%  7.7% 
Darwin  All Houses 584.3 0.3  1.4%  0.1% 
All Units 348.4 0.3  1.1%  9.9% 
Hobart  All Houses 586.6 1.5  2.5%  10.1% 
All Units 400.0 -4.6  -0.4%  17.8% 
National  All Houses 613.8 5.1  2.0%  5.7% 
All Units 395.1 -0.7  -0.3%  2.9% 
Cap City Average   All Houses 989.1 2.9  1.8%  5.2% 
All Units 563.9 0.1  0.1%  -1.0% 

Next update: 10 Nov 2020

SQM Research Weekly Rents Index
Week ending: 28 Oct 2020     Rent        Chg on
prev wk
   Rolling month
% chg
    12 month
% chg
Sydney  All Houses     611.2 -0.2  -1.2%  -9.5% 
All Units 449.8 -1.8  -1.2%  -9.5% 
Melbourne  All Houses 513.8 -0.8  -0.7%  -2.9% 
All Units 387.3 -1.3  -1.1%  -5.3% 
Brisbane  All Houses 469.9 1.1  1.1%  1.8% 
All Units 377.0 0.0  -0.1%  -0.1% 
Perth  All Houses 477.5 2.5  1.5%  9.2% 
All Units 364.1 -0.1  1.0%  8.3% 
Adelaide  All Houses 418.5 1.5  1.2%  5.5% 
All Units 311.6 -3.6  -0.9%  0.1% 
Canberra  All Houses 627.5 3.5  0.9%  1.4% 
All Units 480.7 0.3  1.2%  3.8% 
Darwin  All Houses 526.4 -10.4  -1.7%  4.5% 
All Units 374.2 1.8  2.0%  -0.2% 
Hobart  All Houses 448.9 0.1  -0.5%  3.7% 
All Units 378.4 -1.4  0.8%  -5.6% 
National  All Houses 470.0 2.0  1.3%  5.9% 
All Units 372.0 0.0 -0.3%  1.4% 
Cap City Average   All Houses 529.0 1.0  0.0% -2.9% 
All Units 409.0 -2.0  -1.0%  -6.0% 

Next update: 4 Nov 2020

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