We have just published a set of papers for our latest topic, Health.
Would it be possible to save 7 million people from dying in the worldâ€™s poorest countries? Itâ€™s a bold target, but one that is realistic and achievable.
Based on medical research published originally in The Lancet in September 2014 â€“ and now extended to include costs and benefits â€“ Professor Prabhat Jha and colleagues from the University of Toronto, suggest that reaching this target would be possible if we massively increased health expenditure â€“ $444 billion a year in 2030 - and used this money to improve health infrastructure, expand health systems and target smart interventions.
As reported on TIME.com this could reduce premature deaths by 40% by 2030 â€“ in other words save 7 million lives â€“ in low income and lower middle-income countries. For every dollar spent weâ€™ll do $4 worth of good.
And looking just at only low-income countries, which currently spend just $14 per person on health, the bang-for-buck is even greater. In these countries there is still, unfortunately, a high prevalence of easily preventable diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis. By 2030, spending $34 dollars more per person would save 2 million lives annually. For the world's poorest billion, each dollar spent on general health care would do $13 of good.
Costs in 2030 ($B)
Benefits in 2030 ($B)
Benefit for every dollar spent
By 2030, reduce premature mortality by 40% in low income countries (LICs)
By 2030, reduce premature mortality by 40% in lower-middle income countries (LMIs)
By 2030, reduce premature mortality by 40% in LICs and LMIs
Here, Copenhagen Consensus Center has just released its latest research on Health targets for the post-2015 development agenda. Prabhat Jha and colleagues from the University of Toronto write the main report with additional viewpoints provided by UNDP, medical practitioners, Glaxo-Smith Kline, Save the Children and the Graduate Institute of International Development in Geneva.
PhD and Adjunct Professor
President of Copenhagen Consensus Center
PS. The Post-2015 Consensus project brings together 60 teams of economists with NGOs, international agencies and businesses to identify the targets with the greatest benefit-to-cost ratio for the UN's post-2015 development goals. If you have questions about the project, send an email to Research Project Manager Brad Wong by replying to this email.